Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Each writes two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
