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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple pattern. It commonly serves as a kind of apology. We regret we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the largest turnaround wins the prize. In reality, it creates an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or merely the greatest shock.

But the latest race is distinctly unique. The list of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions fading and longtime underperformers improving together. In an normal season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in such a turbulent and thrilling season, he's competing with several other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the ideal vote could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his special ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system rather than improvising. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that frees wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to conjure magic from nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the building with the kind of expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme wizard but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet the current is not a typical year!

Where his case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for sustained success. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has mastered the off-field aspects, which was not a certainty following his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him only one place ahead of peers.

Still